‘Black-swan solution’

Monday 3 January 2011, 9.40pm HKT

A black-swan solution is something totally unexpected and implausible but, if it happens, it will radically change things.

Most of us think our solutions are black-swan solutions, especially when we come up with those solutions on our own or that we’ve taken pains to learn those solutions. Pure vanity in both cases, as Nietzsche said.

Truth is, most of our black-swan solutions might be better described as ‘dead-chicken solutions.’

(20 March 2010)

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